An economic forecast is an estimate of the future value of a economic variable, typically using statistical methods. Economic forecasters collect historical data inputs and apply a computational model to generate a future estimate for one or more variables, then use information graphics and commentary to communicate their results to users.
Economic forecasting requires a considerable amount of knowledge about the representations of behavioral patterns in economic data. However, it also depends on faith that these relationships will persist in the future.
While global growth remained strong through the spring, the rise in trade barriers and heightened policy uncertainty have clouded the outlook, leading to a major downgrade to our 2025 forecast. Global GDP growth is projected to slow this year and next, with a tepid recovery in 2026-27. Rising global debt and tighter financial conditions weigh on the outlook, while a weakening in commodity exports and reduced official aid undermine investment in low-income countries.
In the US, consumer spending growth is expected to decelerate this year as higher tariffs and interest rates weigh on durable goods purchases. In contrast, spending on services is expected to grow more quickly as these expenditures are less sensitive to tariffs and interest rates.